Who believed in Livan Hernandez when the Mets signed him to a minor league deal? That’s not very many hands. But now Mets fans are singing we shall be Livan.
With Wednesday’s five IP, one-run outing versus the Braves, Livan Hernandez has now pitched more innings (14.2) and has a lower ERA (3.07) than the top 16 most-used pitchers in camp. Hernandez has also all but sewn up the fifth starter’s job.
Entering Spring Training, Hernandez would have been called a darkhorse candidate for the starting rotation. The odds-on favorite was Tim Redding, he of the guaranteed contract. The popular pick outside of Redding would have been Freddy Garcia, who was a top-notch hurler until injuries curtailed him a few years back. And there were those who thought Jon Niese should get the job.
But Hernandez? He was so bad last year he was released by the Twins and he was even worse once picked up by the Rockies. His K/9 plummeted to 3.35 last season and batters posted a .345 BABIP versus him. Hernandez threw more fastballs last year but he averaged just 83.7 mph with his heater, the third-slowest mark among all hurlers in the majors.
Recently, Hernandez has been slowed by knee problems, but he claims he is 100 percent healthy now. He also said that he could have gone longer than the five innings he pitched versus Atlanta.
In today’s New York Post, Bart Hubbuch had an angle that we all should have considered when handicapping the fifth-starter’s race at the beginning of camp. Hubbuch pointed out the ties between manager Jerry Manuel and Hernandez – they were both members of the 1997 World Champion Marlins.
Hernandez was the young Cuban import who won nine games during the regular season and then went 4-0 during the post-season en route to winning both the NLCS and World Series MVP Awards. Manuel was Jim Leyland’s bench coach that season before being named manager of the White Sox the following year.
So, if Hernandez pitched well, he probably had a leg up on the other newcomers (Redding and Garcia) with whom the manager had no previous ties. But the competition has been so one-sided until this point that no one can complain that the outcome was rigged.
The Mets will not need a fifth starter until mid April, so the club will likely carry seven relievers to start the season until they need Hernandez. With Redding an option to open the season on the disabled list and Garcia and Niese likely to be in Triple-A, there could be as many as three bullpen slots up for grabs right now.
Bobby Parnell, Nelson Figueroa, Connor Robertson, Kyle Snyder, Brian Stokes, Brandon Knight and Casey Fossum are among those challenging for the spots. Fossum is the only lefty in the group and his chances were undoubtedly helped with the signing of free agent Joe Beimel by the Nationals.
But the seventh reliever will only be keeping the spot warm for Hernandez, who has made 30 or more starts in 11 straight seasons.
7 comments
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March 19, 2009 at 4:21 pm
Scott G
Wow,nothing says Championship like LivanHernandez. I am so glad hey didn’t spend the extra 1-2 million on abreu or Hudson.
March 19, 2009 at 4:45 pm
bjoura
2008 Pedro Martinez – 5.61 ERA, 109 IP, 5 Wins
That is what Livan Hernandez has to improve upon. It’s fine if you don’t like him, but even his detractors have to admit the guy has been remarkably durable throughout his career.
Even last year when he was easily the worst he’s ever been, he still threw 180 IP and posted 13 wins.
If he duplicates those two numbers, that is a giant, Giant, GIANT upgrade over what the Mets got from their 5th SP last year. It’s certainly much more of an upgrade than Orlando Hudson will provide.
Abreu might provide more of an upgrade, but we have no idea if he would be replacing Church or Murphy. If Church has concussion problems again this year, than Abreu would have been good (but he signed for $5 million and the Mets thought it wise to cut a guy so they could save less than $2 million). I don’t think Abreu would provide any kind of upgrade over Murphy, especially once you factor in Abreu’s atroicious defense. Murphy may not have looked smooth, but he got the job done. And he figures to be better in the field, not having to learn on the job while making his MLB debut this season.
March 19, 2009 at 4:48 pm
bassman
Livan carries a wealth of experience and power. I am glad to have him aboard and would love to see a comeback story.
But, the season is young and his age will make him susceptible to injury. I am open to a surprise, but don’t expect this to be a long term solution.
For now….stretch and take care of yourself Livan. We need you!
March 20, 2009 at 11:51 am
Scott G
Hernandez may give the Mets more innings than Pedro did last year
But they will be awful innings. I hope Citifield plays as a major pitchers
Park even though Livan will have a short rope. I imagine a 5th starter isn’t that much of
a difference maker but the Mets didn’t win last year. There were much better options available to improve the team without spending significantly more than they have.
March 20, 2009 at 11:59 am
bjoura
What would Livan have to give you – using any stats/numbers you prefer – for him to not be “awful”?
Me – I’d love to have 180 IP and 13 wins from my fifth SP, which is what he did last year.
March 22, 2009 at 11:26 am
Scott G.
If Livan is still in the rotation by mid May based on performance,i would consider him a success.
May 21, 2009 at 2:33 pm
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